Monday, January 23, 2012

Midseason Report: ACC

Now I move on to a division that has been dominated by Duke and North Carolina: the Atlantic Coast Conference. There are some new faces succeeding this year, most notably Virginia. It seems that although they are once again elite, both Duke and North Carolina have their flaws and may not run away with the division like they normally do. Let’s run down the list and see how the ACC has panned out so far.

Duke Blue Devils: One of the top scoring teams in the nation, Duke is on a tear despite losing Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith. As usual, they are dominant at home (undefeated so far), and Coach K has them playing at a very high level. Despite his inconsistent play, Austin Rivers is still leading the team at 14.2 points per game and is its most explosive player. Rivers is a special talent that will only get better as the season goes on. The most amazing part about the Blue Devils’ success is their shooting. Duke, always know to live and die by the three, have four players who specialize in launching from behind the arc in Rivers, Ryan Kelly, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins. Despite the fact that they shoot so many threes, they still have a .498 field goal percentage as a team, good for sixth in the nation. Mason Plumlee has been a terror on the boards and gives the team the balance it needs. Duke has a nice mix of young players and veterans, and if they stay hot shooting, they will have a long postseason run.

North Carolina Tar Heels: You would think that a 16-3 record would be good for a team, but for these Tar Heels, it is a huge disappointment. The loss to UNLV was a bit strange and everyone can look past a last second one-point loss on the road to Kentucky, but losing to Florida St. by 33? That is a concern. Still, the Tar Heels are an incredibly talented and deep team who still look to be one of the best in the country. North Carolina leads the country in both scoring and rebounding. Their trio of top players, Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller, has been fantastic, but there is a drop off after that. Kendall Marshall does a good job at being the floor general, but other players need to step up in order for UNC to really get a national title. Reggie Bullock, Dexter Strickland, James McAdoo, and P. J. Hairston all have that potential and could break out for the Tar Heels come tournament time. North Carolina still has yet to play many tough games, so it will be interesting to see how they fair against Duke. Ultimately, I think they will finish the season nearly flawless and capture an NCAA title.

N. C. State Wolfpack: 12.9, 12.9, 12.7, 12.2, and 12.1. Those are the points per game averages for the top five scorers on N. C. State. Talk about balanced. Scott Wood, C. J. Leslie, Lorenzo Brown, Richard Howell, and C. J. Williams are all solid contributors to a Wolfpack team that is having a surprising amount of success. Three of their five losses have come to teams that were ranked at some point this season, one of them being to #1 Syracuse. While they have yet to really get a quality win, their success is still remarkable, and they will have that opportunity because they still play Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina twice. I still think they’re not quite at the point of being a contender, but they should remain competitive in the ACC and make a run at a tournament spot.

Florida St. Seminoles: As usual, the ‘Noles are making noise in the ACC because of head coach Leonard Hamilton’s defensive philosophy. As I mentioned above, they crushed North Carolina and held them to only 57 points. Florida St. has played a tough schedule so far and should be happy with its 12-6 record. In the absence of Chris Singleton, other players have stepped up. Bernard James has been a beast, averaging 10.4 points and 8.9 rebounds. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller have both increased their play big time, averaging 13.5 and 13 points per game respectively. Florida St. is always a tough team to beat, as last year’s Sweet Sixteen run showed everyone, so don’t be surprised if they continue upsetting teams in the ACC. The best is still yet to come for this Seminoles, as they should string together a 20-win season.

Virginia Cavaliers: Virginia was a popular sleeper team this season, but with only two losses, one a three-point loss to Duke on the road, they are surpassing everyone’s expectations. The Cavaliers are playing out of their minds right now. Mike Scott is making a case for ACC player of the year with 16.9 and 8.8 rebounds per game. Virginia has beaten nearly all comers, with their most notable win coming over Michigan. Joe Harris has also done a good job at being Scott’s sidekick. Virginia has proven it is here to stay as a top-25 team in the country, but it still remains to be seen how good they can be. The rest of the season, the ACC tournament, and the NCAA tournament will give us a good outlook at their ceiling.

Maryland Terrapins: Maryland has had a nice season so far, even without having Jordan Williams. Terrell Stoglin has been the man for the Terrapins, averaging 21.2 points per game. They benefited early from an easy nonconference schedule, but are only 2-2 in the ACC. While they have yet to win an actual road game, they’ve been pretty good at home. A lot of judging for Maryland will have to come from how they do in the rest of ACC play. With the way this team looks, they seem like they have upset potential. Stoglin has shown his ability to take over games, so the Terps are dangerous, but their upside is limited until they receive some stronger play from the rest of the team.

Boston College Eagles: If you’re confused as to why the Eagles are this high in the standings, it’s because of they’re conference record. They’ve gotten blown out several times this season by very weak teams. With only seven wins and no one scoring in double figures, the season looks bleak for Boston College. They have the ability to contend with weaker teams at home. But against a top team on the road? Forget it. With no quality wins, this team is going nowhere fast. Boston College should drop to the bottom of the standings in the next few weeks.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes: Miami has had an interesting season. Expected to be one of the better teams in the ACC, they have yet to really pick up a quality win. Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, both players expected to lead the team, have had a drop-off from last season. Transfer Kenny Kadji has been a nice surprise, averaging 11.4 points and 5.1 rebounds. However, the Hurricanes need to step up their play if they want to make it to the tournament. They haven’t been bad so far, but their best win is against Rutgers. Opportunities await them in the ACC schedule, they’ll just have to make the most of them.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Things aren’t looking good for Wake Forest, as they have dropped three straight games. Their only conference win is to Virginia Tech at home. While they do have two very good players in C. J. Harris (17.4 points, 3.4 rebounds) and Travis McKie (17 points, 6.6 rebounds), they just haven’t been able to put it all together. Losses to Wofford and Arizona St. do not help their resume that boasts its best win against Nebraska. The Demon Deacons look like the kind of team that wont finish very high in the conference. However, with Harris and McKie, they could do better than many expect.

Clemson Tigers: With a bunching of guys returning, Clemson was thought to be able to make an impact in the ACC, but has yet to do so. Andre Young, Tanner Smith, and Devin Booker have all made improvements from when they were on last year’s tournament squad, so there is still some hope, but their current body of work is ugly. Losses to Boston College, UTEP, and South Carolina are not helping their case. They could finish strong down the stretch, but you might want to write this season off for the Tigers.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: The Yellow Jackets have lost six of their last seven games, four of those losses coming at home. Georgia Tech has been a team that has recently relied on one player to do most of the work (Iman Shumpert last year, Derrick Favors the year before), but Glen Rice Jr. just isn’t cutting it this year. He averages 13.3 points and 6.4 rebounds for a relatively weak team that only averages 63.2 points a game. After getting drubbed by Virginia, it doesn’t seem like these guys are playing with any heart. The season could get a lot worse than it is right now.

Virginia Tech Hokies: We end the conference with the struggling Hokies who are 0-4 in conference play. After only losing to Syracuse, Minnesota, and Kansas St. in nonconference play, they are still looking for their first ACC win. It hasn’t been too easy so far, but they have lost close games to Wake Forest and Boston College. Erick Green has been the top Hokie, averaging 16.1 points per game. For a team that has really wanted to make the tournament this season,they must play better. They should escape from the basement of the conference, but a tournament berth is too far out of reach.

Here are my projected standings for the end of the ACC season. There are four ACC games on today, Maryland vs. Temple, Wake Forest vs. Boston College, Florida St. vs. Duke, and Georgia Tech vs. Clemson. My predictions for those are Temple, Wake Forest, Duke, and Clemson. Thanks for reading, and check back in a couple of days as I continue my midseason reports.

  1. North Carolina
  2. Duke
  3. Virginia
  4. Florida St.
  5. N. C. State
  6. Miami (FL)
  7. Wake Forest
  8. Clemson
  9. Maryland
  10. Virginia Tech
  11. Boston College
  12. Georgia Tech

Midseason Report: Big 12

10 teams…Big 12…huh? Regardless of the number, this is a division that is loaded at the top (3 national title contenders) and then seems to have a bit of a drop off. Nonetheless, there are some solid teams in the middle of the pack with only one or two teams you can really write off. I’ll see who is where in the conference and give a summary on how they are performing, as we are now more than halfway through the college basketball season.

Kansas Jayhawks: The Jayhawks have an all around solid team that is led by a frontrunner for national player of the year, Thomas Robinson. Robinson has been an absolute terror for opposing teams, averaging 17.8 points, 12.3 rebounds, and over a steal and a block per game, and making everyone forget about the Morris twins. He’s also shooting .544 from the field, showing his efficiency. Kansas has also received big contributions from Tyshawn Taylor, Travis Releford, Elijah Johnson, and Jeff Whitey. Having a starting five that talented has propelled the Jayhawks to the top of the Big 12 with wins over Georgetown, Ohio St., Kansas St., and Baylor. It’s no secret that Kansas is dominant at home, so a couple road losses could be in their future, especially at Baylor. I still think they’ll finish behind Baylor, but they are a top-ten team and a national title contender.

Baylor Bears: The green and yellow Baylor Bears boast something that not many other teams do: they have five players averaging double figures. Led by super sophomore and future lottery pick Perry Jones, the Bears have had one of the best seasons in school history and only lost recently at the Allen Fieldhouse to Kansas, never an easy place to play. They follow up that game with a matchup against Missouri, so it will be interesting to see how they play after a loss. Baylor has had talent for the past few years, but this season they seem to be playing with more discipline. Pierre Jackson has developed into the glue guy for this team and has really helped out the freshmen get going this season. Quincy the freshman (Miller) is teaming well with Quincy the senior (Acy) to provide one of the best frontcourts in the country. Once freshman Deuce Bello gets going, the team will truly be unstoppable. Baylor should win the Big 12 and cruise to a number one seed, as they have emerged as one of the favorites to win March Madness.

Missouri Tigers: Marcus Denmon and Kim English have paced the up-tempo Tigers, as expected, but where they have really received important contributions is in two players who don’t play as many minutes, Ricardo Ratliffe and Michael Dixon. Ratliffe has been a presence on the boards and is shooting an unheard of .771 from the field. Both players have helped Missouri to a 17-1 start this season and an unblemished record at home. The team still has to play Baylor and Kansas twice, which will show just how good Missouri is. The Tigers have channeled their fast pace style into success, and are always a treat to watch. It will be fun to see if they can ride this wave deep through March.

Iowa St. Cyclones: A popular sleeper pick, Iowa St. has moved its way out of the basement of the Big 12. Coach Fred Hoiberg has turned them into a quality team, as they have defeated mostly everyone in their path. They have played Kansas, Missouri, and Michigan close. It’s clear that the reason they have had so much success is because of their star player, Royce White, who leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and assists. White is 250 pounds of muscle on the boards and that is evident in his six double doubles this year. With so much of the Big 12 schedule still left to play, a lot remains to be seen, but the Cyclones have already proven that they have what it takes to be a tournament team. If they string together some more wins and upset one of the teams mentioned above, they should find themselves playing in March.

Kansas St. Wildcats: Losing Jacob Pullen was a big blow, but the Wildcats have pulled it together this year and really succeeded in nonconference play. Then, they came into the Big 12, beat Missouri, and only lost to Baylor by two. Rodney McGruder has taken over the role of lead dog as his gives Kansas St. a scoring guard who is also big enough to grabs rebounds. Jamar Samuels and Will Spralding have also given McGruder help, both scoring and rebounding. This Kansas St. team is well rounded, and a team coached by Frank Martin will always be disciplined. The Wildcats have upset potential as they were ranked earlier this season and have shown that they can hang with elite teams.

Oklahoma Sooners: As I predicted, the Sooners have slowed down a bit in Big 12 play. They have only two wins so far, one coming from lowly Texas Tech. However, with a win over Kansas St. and a one point loss to Cincinnati, Oklahoma has shown that they can compete. Steven Pledger continues to be a monster, averaging 17.3 points per game. He has received help from Andrew Fitzgerald, Romero Osby, and Calvin Newell Jr. Oklahoma has been a top rebounding team, but they shoot a low percentage (.436). They’ll need to improve their shooting if they want to finish in the top half of the Big 12.

Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns were expected to lose a step after losing nearly all of their key contributors from last season, but they have carried on with J’Covan Brown running the show. Brown has averaged 19.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists and has turned into the player everyone thought he could be. Myck Kabongo has also been solid as a freshman point guard, never an easy thing to be. So far, Texas has beaten the teams it’s supposed to beat and lost to the teams is wasn’t supposed beat. They’ll have to step up their game if they want to make the tournament, but good coaching is something that could propel the Longhorns to a winning streak.

Oklahoma St. Cowboys: After a lot of preseason hype, the Cowboys sit at .500. The biggest disappointment so far has been freshman LeBryan Nash. Nash was supposed to come in and help Keiton Page lead the backcourt, but he hasn’t done much, shooting 38%. While they haven’t really had a terrible loss, they haven’t beaten anyone of note, and have been blown away by some of the better teams in the country. Nash may need a little more time to learn, so it appears that this season for Oklahoma St. most likely won’t lead to a postseason berth. They have to improve on they glass if they hope to salvage any kind of strong finish for the season.

Texas A&M Aggies: What was supposed to be a promising season for the Aggies is spiraling out of control. Khris Middleton, a player who expected to be one of the best in the nation, may still be playing hurt. His numbers are down from last year and Texas A&M has been 3-6 in games he has played in his return from injury. Middleton is a solid player, as is the rest of the Aggie team, so don’t be surprised if they pull off some upsets here and there and finish strong. However, as a Seton Hall fan, this reminds me of last year when Jeremy Hazell returned from injury last year and the team still struggled. Middleton will have the ability to return next year for his senior season.

Texas Tech: Jordan Tolbert has been the only bright spot for a team that is 0-5 in conference play. In their defense, the Red Raiders weren’t expected to do much this season, but it has been very ugly. They are one of the nation’s worst teams in scoring and rebounding. They have lost to a ton of bad teams and have yet to beat anyone of note. Red Raider fans may not want to watch the rest of the season because there are not many wins in their future.

Here is the projected finish for the Big 12

  1. Baylor
  2. Kansas
  3. Missouri
  4. Kansas St.
  5. Iowa St.
  6. Texas
  7. Texas A&M
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Oklahoma St.
  10. Texas Tech

Midseason Report: Big East

The Big East, the undisputed and most dominant conference last year, has lost a step. Soon, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia will be gone for the ACC and Big 12. However, the conference has still produced several quality teams and may get more than half of them in the tournament this year. I will be going through the standings from top to bottom and give you a midseason report on each Big East squad.

Syracuse Orange: What more can you say about the Orange that hasn’t been said already? They are an incredibly deep team and have beaten all comers. Jim Boheim has done a good job at keeping the focus of the team off of Bernie Fine and on basketball. Kris Joseph paces the top team in the country that has good guards (Scoop Jardine, Dion Waiters, and Brandon Triche), good forwards (James Southerland and C. J. Fair), and good centers (Fab Melo and Rakeem Christmas). If you had to pick a week spot, it would be rebounding, as the Orange are 96th in the country and have no one averaging six per game. Syracuse will probably drop a road game or two in conference play, but they should win the Big East tournament and cruise to a #1 seed in March Madness.

Cincinnati Bearcats: Cincinnati has turned into the team everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season. Although they have some bad losses, they have only lost one game since that brawl with Xavier. Sean Kilpatrick and Dion Dixon are doing a tremendous job and although Yancy Gates has had a production drop from last year, he still brings solid play. While I’m still not sold on the Bearcats, their road win against Georgetown was huge. However, with a tough remaining schedule (games against Connecticut, West Virginia, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Louisville, and Marquette twice), they will most likely drop from the number two spots.

Georgetown Hoyas: Many thought the Hoyas would drop off because they lost Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, but Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson have stepped in to be the leaders of this talented Georgetown team. They only have three losses, all of them coming from quality teams (Kansas, West Virginia, and Cincinnati). Only one of those was a road loss, showing that the Hoyas are good wherever they play. They have benefited from having a balanced squad and shooting a high field goal percentage. Freshman Otto Porter has been a key cog by averaging 7.1 rebounds per game. Looking at this team, I think they have what it takes to finish right behind Syracuse in the conference.

Seton Hall Pirates: The Pirates have been a pleasant surprise and have shown they are for real. With blowout wins over West Virginia and Connecticut, it’s clear that Seton Hall is no joke. With only three losses so far, they look like one of the top teams in the Big East. Although he has slowed down a bit in conference play, Herb Pope has been a monster both on the boards and in the post. He is one of, if not the best big man in the conference, and is the anchor to this team. Senior point guard Jordan Theodore is a catalyst for this team. He is great at passing and ball handling and has a silky smooth jump shot. If the team starts to struggle, it’s usually Theodore righting the ship. However, the biggest key is forward Fuquan Edwin. Edwin leads the nation in steals and has brought a new element to the team’s defense. He is always active tipping passes, and gets everyone else to play hard-nosed defense. Earlier in the year, I questioned the depth of Seton Hall, but with Aaron Cosby emerging as a solid fourth scoring option, and Patrik Auda and Brandon Mobley also playing well, this team is built to succeed. They should get some more big wins this season especially at home (Seton Hall is undefeated at the Prudential Center), and finish right around where they are now.

Connecticut Huskies: The defending national champions are not the same team as last year; they have their flaws. Their biggest asset, Jeremy Lamb, has performed at an incredibly high level. However, their strength is in their big men, and Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith and greatly disappointing. Andre Drummond has picked it up after a slow start, which shows some hope, but the team’s future will depend heavily on whether Oriakhi and Smith can get it going. The reason for this is because they are very thin at the guard position; they really don’t have anyone besides Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatwright. The team has still had plenty of success this season and has a ton of talent, but they need to improve if they want to be an elite team in the conference. I believe they will, and finish fourth.

Marquette Golden Eagles: Marquette is a team that has greatly improved from last year because it returned most of its players. With only one bad loss, they are a very strong team. Eighth in the nation in assists, they are playing unselfish team basketball, something that has given Georgetown and Syracuse a lot of success. Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder have been the clear leaders of this team, averaging 18.2 and 16.2 points per game respectively, but the Golden Eagles have many players contribute to their scoring consistently. Todd Mayo, Davante Gardener, Junior Cadougan, and Vander Blue all play major minutes and are big contributors. Crowder has really been the MVP, as he has also averaged 7.4 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and a block per game. This team is built for the long run and will finish third in the conference.

West Virginia Mountaineers: Kevin Jones has finally broken out and is having the kind of season that may win him the Big East Player of the Year award. A double-double machine, Jones averages 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds. What has been key is getting that second scoring option in Daryrl “Truck” Bryant who not only is the key in the ignition of the offense, but also averages 17.8 points per game. Deniz Kilicli, who is a mountaineer himself, rounds out the big three by giving West Virginia a solid option in the post. While there isn’t too much behind these three, they are a force to be reckoned with. The Mountaineers have the firepower to finish in the top half of the conference without a doubt.

South Florida: Unlike earlier in the season, the Bulls are not pushovers anymore. They play very well at home, as it showed with their win over Seton Hall. However, the elite teams will see past this charade. I can’t imagine top teams losing to the Bulls, even on the road, and the fact is this: they’re just not that good. Augustus Gilchrist leads the team in scoring, but at only 10.8 points. The scariest part of that is that he is shooting .376 from the field, a miserable number for a big man. South Florida may be riding high now, but I expect them to finish at the bottom of the conference.

Rutgers Scarlett Knights: Laughable performances in nonconference play had everyone writing off the Scarlett knights, myself included. They lost to Miami (FL), Illinois St., Richmond, LSU, and Princeton, none of which are good losses. However, they turned a corner by beating Florida and Connecticut. Eli Carter has been their best player and has come up clutch throughout the season, but Gilvydas Biruta has been a disappointment. Expected to breakout after a solid freshman year, Biruta has not really improved at all. Rutgers has shown that it can be a good team at home, but with so many bad losses, they would have to win a lot more games to make the tournament. The Scarlett Knights will drop in the standings, but will almost always have upset potential.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The injury to Tim Abromaitis has ultimately doomed the Irish. They still have a solid core with Eric Atkins, Jerian Grant, Jack Cooley, and Scott Martin, but they don’t have someone who can lead this team, something that Abromaitis was and something Ben Hansbrough was last year. Notre Dame has had a tough schedule that’s only going to get tougher. The Irish have played pretty well despite their problems, so don’t sleep on them, but they will most likely finish the year right about where they are right now.

Louisville Cardinals: Right now, it doesn’t seem like Rick Pitino’s Cardinals are able to compete in the Big East. A great nonconference record has been followed by a 2-4 start in the Big East. The loss to Providence was extremely ugly, and after only beating St. John’s and DePaul, it seems like Louisville cant hang with the big dogs. They have a chance to prove me wrong with some big games coming up, but right now they seem like frauds. Gorgui Dieng has paced what is one of the best rebounding teams in the NCAA, but the underachieving Peyton Siva has really hurt the team. If Siva were playing at his normal level, Louisville would really be elite. I expect them to improve, but not enough to get near the top of the conference.

St. John’s Red Storm: In what was clearly a rebuilding year, things have gotten ugly for St. John’s. Aside from a road win against Cincinnati, the Red Storm has been blown out by nearly every quality team they have played. The freshman class has shown some promise with Moe Harkless, D’Angelo Harrison, and God’sgift Achiuwa, all showing that they can play in the Big East. In a year or two, the Red Storm will be an extremely good team, but right now is a learning year. They are still freshman. They have a good coach in Steve Lavin to help them improve, but I see St. John’s finishing in dead last in the Big East this season.

Providence Friars: Ed Cooley has a very solid team in front of him that is just not there yet. Their drubbing of Louisville shows that they are on the cusp of being a good team, and with a great recruiting class coming in, they will be; just not yet. The Friars have shown improvements despite losing Marshon Brooks, with Gerard Coleman and Vincent Council running the show and Bryce Cotton not far behind. Freshman LaDontae Henton (12.7 points and 8.9 rebounds) and sophomore Kadeem Batts (10 points, 4.1 rebounds) have given some youth to balance out some of the more experienced players. With everyone set to return next year, expect the Friars to be a top team in the Big East, but they must endure finishing near the bottom of the league this season.

DePaul Blue Demons: The Blue Demons have gone from laughing stock of the league to solid team. As expected, Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young are leading the team. As sophomores, they’re only going to get better. Jeremiah Kelly and Moses Morgan have also contributed for DePaul. This team is similar to Providence; they’re very young but have a ton of potential. They are still a scary team to face this year, but are not quite there yet. They need to improve on rebounding outside of Melvin and Krys Faber. Head coach Oliver Purnell deserves credit for leading this team out of the cellar.

Villanova Wildcats: It may come as a surprise that Villanova is 17th in the nation in rebounding. Mouphtaou had led them with 8.2 rebounds per game. That aside, it has been a largely disappointing season for the Wildcats. Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek have made improvements, but the team has just not come together and put forth solid efforts. They had some rough losses outside of the conference and have been miserable in the Big East. Jay Wright may just want to forget this year, as Villanova’s consistent success has taken at least a one-year break.

Pittsburgh Panthers: It’s fitting we end with Pitt, because they have been arguably the biggest disappointment in the nation this season. Expected to finish in the top-ten, they are 0-6 in the Big East and on a seven game losing streak. Losses to Notre Dame, DePaul, and Rutgers in that span show that they haven’t even faced the cream of the crop yet in the conference. The blame can go to many places, but you can look no further than Ashton Gibbs. Gibbs passed up the draft to return to school and is having a down year. Gibbs makes his money from behind the arc, where he shot nearly 50% last year. This year, he is at .383. That is a huge dropped and has hurt the overall production of the team. The Panthers aren’t as bad as they seem, and they should be able to climb out of the cellar, but a postseason berth may not be in their future.

Here’s a quick rundown of how I think the final standings will be.

  1. Syracuse
  2. Georgetown
  3. Marquette
  4. Connecticut
  5. Seton Hall
  6. West Virginia
  7. Louisville
  8. Cincinnati
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Pittsburgh
  11. DePaul
  12. Rutgers
  13. Providence
  14. Villanova
  15. South Florida
  16. St. John’s

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Low Seed Special


The brackets are out, and Ohio St., Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Duke have received the number one seeds. Are they the favorites to win their region? Are they even favorites to make the Sweet Sixteen? It’s all about the upsets baby. Here, I will break down every lower seed and tell you who I think will pull off the upset, if they have a chance to pull off the upset, or if they will not be pulling off the upset. In addition, I’ll leak my favorites from each region, as well as the teams who will surprise by making it to the second weekend.

#16 Boston University It’s good for senior forward John Holland to finally get into the tournament. Unfortunately for him, he won’t be able to win a game. The Terriers made a nice run to capture the America East championship, but they’ll be awarded with a meeting with the Big 12 champion Jayhawks. Kansas should have its way with Boston, and the only way I see that not happening is if the Morris twins miss the bus to the BOK Center. Actually, let me correct myself: If the entire Kansas team misses the bus. Boston U. will not be pulling the upset.

#10 Florida St. It seems that Florida St. will be having Chris Singleton back for their opening round against Texas A&M, and the Seminoles couldn’t be happier. While they haven’t played to their full potential without Singleton, it should be noted that they lost to North Carolina on a Harrison Barnes rocket, and lost to Virginia Tech by a fingertip. Singleton is the anchor to Florida St.’s stingy defense and that could pose problems to an Aggies team that has seemed sluggish at times. The Seminoles are primed to pull off the upset.

#12 Clemson The Tigers have to win a game before they even advance to the field of 64. In a play-in game for twelve seeds, something I’m not too keen on, they will face UAB. Clemson has gotten better as of late, but blowing the game against North Carolina really was not encouraging. What was worse was watching Demontez Stitt trying to get a game winning shot on an iso play. He’s not that kind of player and the Tigers aren’t that kind of team. If they can control the tempo and win the rebound battle, they certainly have a shot of not only beating the Blazers, but knocking off West Virginia as well. However, due to their inconsistency, I don’t see either of those happening.

#13 Belmont This is the upset that everyone is picking, including me. Belmont has steamrolled over everyone this season, which may not be saying much, but they are such a complete team. They can shoot, rebound, work the post, and force turnovers. Their opponent, Wisconsin, ended the season by scoring only 33 points against Penn St. The Badgers in my mind are a weaker BYU. They have two very good players, but the supporting cast sometimes doesn’t show up. Ultimately, that will be their downfall. It should be an exciting game, but Belmont will advance. After that, they will win again and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

#12 Richmond Seeded five spots lower than last year, the Spiders now look to be a bracket buster in the first round. The duo of Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper provide a solid inside-outside combination. However, aside from Harper, Richmond has trouble rebounding. While Vanderbilt is mainly a guard oriented team, their center, Festus Ezeli, could give the Spiders trouble. I think the commodores are more battle tested coming out of the SEC East, as opposed to the Atlantic-10 where Richmond resides. They are a trendy upset pick as a twelve seed, and while they do have a shot, I don’t think they can overcome Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins.

#9 Villanova In a hot versus cold matchup, the Wildcats barely have a pulse. They face a George Mason team who just had their sixteen game win streak snapped by VCU. This is a very tricky matchup. The Patriots have not beaten many good teams, but seem to be on a roll. Villanova, on the other hand, has some high quality wins despite the fact that they limped to the end of the season. I went back and forth with this one but in the end, it’s really about how you’re playing. George Mason is playing a hundred times better than the Wildcats, but you should still expect a close game. In the end, the Patriots should pull it out, but you can’t sleep on ‘Nova.

#11 Marquette Marquette is a very puzzling team that has been up and down. They boast wins over Notre Dame, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Syracuse. But they had a three game winning streak at the end of the season that was followed by two rough losses, including a very ugly one at Seton Hall. They then had two strong wins in the Big East Tournament before getting mopped up by Louisville. The bottom line is that this is a very talented team. Led by Jimmy Butler’s shooting, Jae Crowder’s aggressiveness, and Darius Johnson-Odom’s all around ability, they’re primed to upset an Xavier team that just lost to Dayton. It should be a very good game and was a very hard one to pick, but I think the Golden Eagles should pull this one out.

#15 Northern Colorado Coming out of the Big Sky conference with their first ever tournament berth, the Bears are another nice story who should just be happy to be there. San Diego St. has beaten everyone it should, and that shouldn’t stop here. The Aztecs play such good defense that Northern Colorado star Devon Beitzel will be smothered. He led the Bears past Montana, but they’re in the big leagues now. San Diego St. will win, and I’ll be shocked of the opposite turns out to be true. Either way, it should be a nice send off for the four senior starters.

#16 N. C. Asheville Given the fact that they beat Coastal Carolina on the road twice, the Bulldogs should feel accomplished enough. They have a play-in game against Arkansas Little-Rock who barely made it through their conference tournament. They should be able to beat the Trojans, but they get a date with Pittsburgh afterwards. The Bulldogs will be happy with their first win and feel a little sour after getting romped by Pitt.

#9 Illinois The Illini have to put together all their pieces if they want to make a win. They have an extremely talented team with Demetri McCamey and their frontcourt of Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis. I feel that Illinois will be extra motivated since their head coach Bruce Weber may be playing for his job, while the trio of players mentioned above are all seniors. All of this combined should lead to the Illini overpowering the Runnin’ Rebels en route to a victory.

#10 Michigan St. Despite coming out flat against Penn St., a blowout win over Purdue says that the Spartans are ready for March. No one coaches better in the big dance better than Tom Izzo, and he should have his underachieving yet talented squad ready for battle. They face a UCLA team who has some talent too, but just got thumped by Oregon. In a matchup that I think will be dominated by coaching, Kailn Lucas won’t let his senior season end just yet. With Draymond Green and Durrelll Summers at his side, Michigan St. is poised to upset the Bruins and could even make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

#10 Penn St. The second Big Ten team to earn a ten seed, the Nittany Lions needed a late season surge to make the field. They have won five of their last seven, only losing to Ohio St. Despite the loss, I liked what I saw in the Big Ten championship game. I’m still a little unsure of how their resume got them a ten seed, but they are a threat nonetheless. Temple is a veteran team that doesn’t want to make an early exit like last year. But Talor Battle is playing for his college basketball career life. If he loses, that may be it for the star guard. Expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder and take down the Owls who made an unexpected early exit in the A-10 tournament.

#11 Missouri After playing excellent in their non-conference schedule, losing only once to Georgetown in overtime, they faltered in the conference part of the schedule and are losers of three of their last four. They’re playing a team who was playing pretty well before it got manhandled by Notre Dame. I feel like if the Tigers can control the pace, they should have their way with the Bearcats. Marcus Denmon and Kim English will run the floor and show flashes of their preseason dominance. Cincinnati will be off their game which will lead to an upset win for Missouri.

#15 UCSB The Gauchos are in way over their head in this one. While many people think Florida is overseeded at number two, nobody is giving UCSB a chance. They were only a game above .500 before their conference tournament when they made a big run. Like most fifteen seeds, they have really no chance of winning, and should just be happy to be in the tournament.

#9 Old Dominion One of the best rebounding teams in the country, Old Dominion is primed for a hardnosed battle with Butler. They have Kent Bazemore who does it all, and look like a very dangerous team. However, they may have met their match in the Bulldogs. Butler epitomizes toughness and they have so much experience from last year’s run. Matt Howard is one of the most hardworking players in the country, and he should be able to grind it out for Butler. The Monarchs have a shot in this game that will go down to the wire, but I see Butler getting the victory.

#11 VCU Once again, it remains to be seen if VCU will even make the field of 64. I’m surprised they’ve gotten this far. They’ve shown they can win with victories over George Mason and UCLA, but I’m still shocked they made the field over Colorado. They have an outside shot, I don’t see them beating USC. After that, they certainly couldn’t beat the Hoyas.

#12 UAB The Blazers are another team that isn’t in yet and people are skeptic as to whether they deserve a bid. But they are not a team you want to face. Their Coach Mike Davis has a 7-4 NCAA tournament record and always seems to pull off an upset or two. This could be the case again. I see them beating Clemson, but I don’t expect them to go any further. However, it is possible that the beat the Mountaineers, and they even have an outside shot of advancing to the second weekend.

#12 Memphis This is a twelve-five matchup that a lot of upset lovers are steering away from. That does not include me. While they are young, I feel like Memphis’s freshmen took a big step towards growing up in the Conference-USA championship game against UTEP. On the road against a crazy crowd, the Tigers fell down big in the beginning, came back, and won it close at the end because of free throws. They showed a lot of toughness, and have a lot of talent with four players scoring in double figures. I think Arizona is a one man team, and rather overrated. Will Barton is a great player and Tarik Black should keep Derrick Williams in check enough for Memphis to squeeze out a victory.

#13 Princeton A miracle shot vaulted Princeton into the tournament and left a team who a lot of people belonged in, out (Harvard). Senior Kareem Maddox is a sparkplug off the bench for a Princeton team that shoots pretty well from behind the arc. I have Kentucky in this matchup, but I’m a little scared. If Princeton can get hot, the lack of experience could come out of Kentucky’s super freshman, leading to an outside shot of an upset.

#14 St. Peter’s The Peacocks are a team that is mainly defense oriented. Unfortunately for them, they face one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They will have a ton of trouble guarding E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson. St. Peter’s has probably one of the worst matches, and I’m not sure how they can escape this one with a win.

#15 Akron The Zips won an exciting championship game in the MAC tournament against Kent St. thanks to a game saving block by Zeke Marshall. Look for Marshall to give the Irish offense some headaches. Akron is very good at taking care of the ball, and probably has a decent chance of keeping it close. However, Notre Dame is too good to lose this game, but the Zips should make this one interesting.

#16 Hampton The Pirates have a matchup against Duke that they won’t be able to win. No way that a team coached by Coach K loses to a sixteen seed. Hampton’s offense won’t be able to keep up with the Blue Devils, and their defense won’t be able to stop them either. Honestly, I don’t see any sixteen seeds pulling off the unheard of upset this year.

#14 Indiana St. The Sycamores have a tough matchup against a hot Syracuse team. Maybe if it were another team, they would have a shot, but unless forward Carl Richard can somehow outrebound Rick Jackson, Indiana St. has no shot. The Orange are a team who is inconsistent at times, but shouldn’t have trouble getting out of the first round.

#15 Long Island It’s a little upsetting that Long Island is seeded so low. One of the few conference champs who were seeded at the top of their conference tournament, no one is talking about how the Blackbirds are underseeded. If they can hit some threes and control the pace, they may actually be able to beat a North Carolina team that has been getting off to some slow starts as of late. However, I don’t see it happening.

#13 Morehead St. Kenneth Faried is a monster. He’s pulled down more rebounds than anyone has in the entire NCAA history. But Louisville is a really good team. Unfortunately for Faried, the Eagles don’t have enough players to help him beat a team like the Cardinals. Rick Pittino is a fantastic coach that won’t let his team be beat by a weaker Morehead St. They have a shot, but expect the Eagles to only be able to keep it close for a little while as Faried plays his final college game.

#11 USC Why are the Trojans in the tournament again? They lost to Rider, Bradley, TCU, Oregon St., and Oregon twice. By the way, that loss to Rider was at home by twenty. Yuck. However, with Nikola Vucevic and Jio Fontan, USC has some talent and potential. I can see them beating another undeserving team, VCU, but I give them no chance against a rejuvenated Georgetown team with Chris Wright back in action. Watch out though, with those bad losses, the Rams could knock them off before the second round begins.

#14 Bucknell When I watched the Patriot League championship game, I was very impressed with the Bison, and especially their do-it-all center Mike Muscala. Bucknell moves the ball very well and is a team to watch because of their upset history (Kansas anyone?). However, just look at how UConn stormed through the Big East tournament, and your decision should be made for you. The Bison have a chance, but they aren’t the team that will stop the momentum of the Huskies.

#10 Georgia Despite completely choking against Alabama in the SEC tournament, Georgia is in as a ten seed. However, instead of playing another struggling team, they get red hot Washington. Georgia has not done very well against good teams, having a 3-9 record against tournament teams, one of them being against UAB. I don’t see them stopping the Husky train, especially because of their coach, Mark Fox. I’m not a fan of Fox, and he really killed a chance to win that Alabama game late. A lot of times I’ve seen Georgia collapse down the stretch and with athletes like Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslies, I feel like Fox is the problem. You won’t win any tournament games with a bad coach.

#14 Wofford In my biggest upset of the bracket, I have Wofford defeating BYU. They have two excellent players in Noah Dahlman and Cameron Rundles. They play great defense, and have won eight straight. Last year, they finished their season hot and came within four of Wisconsin. Now, with everyone back, expect them to pull off the upset over an overrated BYU team. Jimmer Fredette will get his points, but with almost no one to help him, they will ultimately fall. The loss of Brandon Davies hurts, and Fredette and guard Jackson Emery are the only ones on the team who do anything. In what will be a team game, look for the Terriers to pull off the monumental upset.

#16 UTSA The Roadrunners were seeded seventh in the Southland Conference tournament and still managed to get into the tournament. The upsets end here. They have absolutely no chance against Ohio St., but I’m going with my gut a picking them to lose to Alabama St.

#16 Alabama St. Refer to my prediction above. The Hornets should beat UTSA because of their defense, but like the Roadrunners, they would have no shot in beating the Buckeyes.

#13 Oakland After playing a tough non-conference schedule, the Grizzlies stormed through the Summit League to win the title. They are battle tested and have a ton of talent, especially in the front court with Keith Benson. It’s a shame they have to play the Longhorns who are a team that is just too good for them to beat. Look for this one to be close, but Jordan Hamilton will be the difference in this one.

#16 Arkansas-Little Rock Solomon Bozeman miraculously led the Trojans to the tournament but the Cinderella story stops here. They live and die by the three, and that will ultimately be their undoing against UNC Asheville. Of course, if they do win, I don’t need to tell you what will happen. Ashton Gibbs will happen.

#11 Gonzaga A hot streak by the Zags have led them into the tournament. Mark Few has a lot of experience in March Madness, but I think it the wins end here. Steve Lavin has St. John’s so confident right now and these kids know that if they lose in the second round, it will be a major disappointment. Unless Robert Sacre can really take advantage of D. J. Kennedy being out, I don’t think the Bulldogs will beat the Red Storm.

#12 Utah St. A lot of people like Utah St. over Kansas St., but I just don’t see how that’s going to happen. Yes, they have talented players in Tai Wesley and Brockeith Pane, but who did they play this year? A thirty win season includes wins against all no names except for St. Mary’s, who got left out of the dance. Meanwhile, Kansas St. is playing great and despite an early exit in the Big 12 tournament, they’ve beaten a lot of good teams, including Kansas who has two losses. I’m not buying into the Aggies like the rest of the country.

I see Washington upsetting a North Carolina team that they are evenly matched against to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. St. John’s should also advance by overpowering Wofford with Dwight Hardy. Although I like Kansas St., I see them eventually losing at the hands of an incredibly dangerous Belmont team. And finally, I have Bruce Pearl and Tennessee pulling off a monumental upset over Duke. My final four teams are Ohio St., Texas, Louisville, and Pittsburgh. In the championship game, I see the Buckeyes overpowering the Cardinals, as they frankly can’t be stopped.

Let the Madness begin!